Russia's next steps will be carefully calculated and may include a renaming or rebranding of the Wagner Group, the replacement of Prigozhin as its leader, and potential withdrawal of Wagner fighters from any territories adjoining Russia-including from Ukraine-due to the risk of another mutiny. ![]() This was an example of brinkmanship to counter a long-term business threat posed by Russia's military leadership. It came as the Russian Ministry of Defense attempted to bring Wagner fighters under its direct control through individual contracts by the end of June, which would have effectively circumvented Prigozhin's control in Ukraine and put Wagner's numerous profitable ventures in Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere in the Global South at risk. This was not a coup or actual attempt to take over political power it was a theatrical power play by Prigozhin to demonstrate his significance in relation to other parties in Putin's inner circle. Prigozhin's rebellion with 25,000 Russian-hired fighters is an extreme example of what goes wrong when private and public forces are codeployed without unity of command structure. Prigozhin Staged Power Play with March on Moscow Putin has intentionally done everything to avoid instituting such a clear and consistent command-and-control structure between Wagner and his military, instead preferring to pit the private and public sides of the coin against each other. Codeployment can work, but only if a clear and consistent command-and-control structure is put into place and everyone abides by it. In my book “Victory for Hire,” I found that mercenaries can strengthen military effectiveness when deployed in place of a military force, but can really weaken it when “codeployed” alongside regular military forces. While this has served his aims at times in terms of plausible deniability, it was ultimately an unsuccessful venture. Putin, in particular, has preferred to paternalistically treat Wagner's Prigozhin as one son, while treating his own Ministry of Defense as the other-never wanting to declare either to be the “favorite child.” Russia has for years employed Wagner with strategic ambiguity: Private military actors remain illegal in Russia, allowing for broad uncertainty about the Kremlin's intent toward the group. This is not surprising: The foundations of the current Russian market for force are shaped by private firms that emerged in the post–Cold War era to support the security needs of state energy companies such as Gazprom, Tatneft, Stroytransgaz, Zarubezhneft, Rosneft, and Surgutneftgaz. The Wagner Group is a significant source of income for the Kremlin, enabling the Russian government to quietly and securely overtake lucrative mining and extraction sites for a significant profit. Moreover, the organization is a significant source of income for the Kremlin, enabling the Russian government to quietly and securely overtake lucrative mining and extraction sites for a significant profit. Wagner Group Is an Important Income Source for the Kremlin ![]() The organization is also active throughout Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, and is often the tip of the Russian spear in power projection into these areas. But Wagner is unique in its scope and scale, having reportedly deployed 5,000 fighters at the height of the Syrian civil war in 2017, and 50,000 fighters in Ukraine as of early 2023. The Wagner Group is just one of several known Russian private military companies that have operated abroad in the relatively recent past. Leading a “march of justice,” Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin led 25,000 primarily Russian fighters from Ukrainian territory into Russia and marched to Moscow, taking over military commands in the towns of Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, and Lipetsk in their wake. On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he would keep his promise to allow Wagner's soldiers to move to Belarus, go home to their families, or sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry. ![]() It is nearly impossible to imagine that the Russian leadership will completely disband the corporate underpinnings of the Wagner Group and its overall personnel-they are too significant to Russia's greater geostrategic aims and economic strength. Still, it is unlikely that Wagner's paramilitary enterprise will be dissolved. Over the weekend, the world watched with a mixture of fascination, anticipation, excitement, and horror as the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group appeared to launch a direct challenge to the nuclear-armed Russian military establishment.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |